Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa65eca8fd493ec65db67d193fdf4ebee3c8624708fdadd85c3dc1b12f2e8c060
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 8c | 805.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 5c | 690.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…96babacked Yes | 5c | 690$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 7c | 670$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 13c | 598.22$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 14c | 516.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 10c | 502.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 7c | 499.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 407.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 11c | 339.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…741dbacked Yes | 5c | 300.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…0559backed Yes | 5c | 300.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 10c | 269.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 22c | 255.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 6c | 248.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 230.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 13c | 208$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 12c | 203.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 203.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 9c | 182$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 171.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 9c | 158$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d8…b094backed Yes | 12c | 127.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 16c | 109.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…0109backed Yes | 13c | 108.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 17c | 100.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 93.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 36c | 83.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 66.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 17c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…c795backed Yes | 25c | 43.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 74c | 28.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 21.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.