Valorant · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea0bedc70ac06d053954e91149e0d7c2201cb071cc157f1c77e74c0137f6a74e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 64c | 794$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.7 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 36c | 787$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.36 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Over | 44c | 252.37$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.64 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Over | 36c | 187.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.47 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Under | 64c | 182.91$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Over | 40c | 75.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 60c | 70.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 65c | 70.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 36c | 55.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Under | 64c | 35.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5)MIBR won
- Map Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs MIBR (+2.5)MIBR won
- Valorant: MIBR vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff PlayoffsNRG won
- Valorant: MIBR vs NRG - Map 1 WinnerMIBR won
- Valorant: MIBR vs NRG - Map 2 WinnerMIBR won
- Valorant: MIBR vs NRG - Map 3 WinnerNRG won
- Valorant: MIBR vs NRG - Map 4 WinnerNRG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.