TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,059 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde49…fe85backed Over53c9,999$5,298 inWon+$4,701.6948451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under49c6,917$3,418 inLost-$3,417.9711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under47c4,266$2,027 inLost-$2,026.5612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Over53c3,203$1,697 inWon+$1,505.218446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under47c3,202$1,505 inLost-$1,504.874,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under62c1,002$618 inLost-$618.34,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over40c1,000$400 inWon+$6001,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over38c575.64$219 inWon+$356.236,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over44c268.33$118 inWon+$150.379,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a8…6764backed Over40c159$64 inWon+$95.426438.3%101 W · 163 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over54c138.01$75 inWon+$63.048,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3529…fb0cbacked Over37c135$50 inWon+$85.52035%7 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under11c129.99$14 inLost-$14.221,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under61c79.57$49 inLost-$48.5497944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74df…2b11backed Over40c74.25$30 inWon+$44.558050%40 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over40c64.43$26 inWon+$38.493,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Over40c50$20 inWon+$3017953.1%95 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under60c40.41$24 inLost-$24.185,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe840…733cbacked Under61c33.56$20 inLost-$20.4712541.6%52 W · 73 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over39c33.56$13 inWon+$20.472,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over40c31$12 inWon+$18.62,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under62c25.39$16 inLost-$15.7470737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f04…2392backed Under64c20$13 inLost-$12.810557.1%60 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.