MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x486b9a49e9e8508c481307d0cd1b127627bb7b6b63fec0c2dbf196e4a3c47be9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a4c…1f30backed Under | 53c | 17,000$9,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,035.84 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 7,768$3,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,123.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 3,067$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.64 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 54c | 2,458$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.3 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 2,059$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 1,795$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.21 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…9cb2backed Under | 51c | 1,400$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 47c | 1,111$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.83 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Under | 54c | 1,065$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.1 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 52c | 953.05$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.18 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 911$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.97 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 901.9$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.01 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 54c | 757.23$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.54 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Over | 46c | 552.17$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.17 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 420$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 53c | 406.42$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.69 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 399.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 372$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.16 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…0a9fbacked Under | 50c | 279.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.94 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Under | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 54c | 268.28$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…3369backed Under | 53c | 262.57$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.57 | 245 | 47.3%116 W · 129 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Over | 46c | 239.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.13 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 48c | 201.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 48c | 199.42$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 165.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 43c | 159.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 47c | 134$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 47c | 127.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 53c | 118.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 118$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 102.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e9…03a5backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 81.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…e828backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 47c | 71.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Over | 47c | 63.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 42c | 60.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Under | 53c | 54.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…3f5bbacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 44%111 W · 141 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 53.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 41c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3136…3544backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 56c | 35.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…0effbacked Under | 53c | 34.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 48c | 34.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9444…048ebacked Under | 53c | 32.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 46c | 28.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 46c | 28.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Over | 48c | 26.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +10.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 45c | 26.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 49c | 23.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…2199backed Under | 53c | 22.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…21f5backed Under | 53c | 22.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 51c | 20.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona DiamondbacksMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.