MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bbe191df78b7db3a0a0e6643bef1a160e12c94c9e15bfbddc4a8f4f6331f394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Arizona Diamondbacks, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 2,443$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.68 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 1,250$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 1,103$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 395.42$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 76c | 232.12$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 216.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 10c | 188.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 157.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 153.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 125.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 77c | 102.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 98.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 89.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 67c | 78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 75c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 69.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 21c | 68.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 45.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 41.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…44fdbacked Minnesota Twins | 79c | 36.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Minnesota Twins | 75c | 21.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…bb65backed Minnesota Twins | 78c | 16.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Minnesota Twins | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona DiamondbacksMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.