Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeab79a80d731396c3574e1d61c233e608605da64e4fba19e6668ac711978b260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 2,143$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.78 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 1,693$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.26 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 835.35$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.91 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 12c | 736.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +282.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 64c | 567.34$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.43 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Under | 34c | 423.71$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Over | 60c | 406.81$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.73 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 10c | 400.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 12c | 376.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 350.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 248.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 71c | 245.65$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 42c | 229.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Over | 61c | 225.57$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647a…4d7abacked Over | 46c | 212.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 68c | 171.65$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f7…b205backed Under | 30c | 168.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 64c | 159.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 60c | 144.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 47c | 138.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 74c | 134.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 35c | 126.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 98.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 31c | 92.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 69c | 91.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 62c | 89.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 35c | 68.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 67.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 77c | 64.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Stade Brestois 29: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Nantes vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)Stade Brestois 29 won
- Spread: Stade Brestois 29 (-1.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.