Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf3daf95a305e16305c21a1d73b021542c0443e9e3051941818f053dbd5586e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 490.05$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 74c | 299.12$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.29 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 272.16$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 219.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 56c | 180$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 178.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 174.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.68 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 170.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 69c | 166.96$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 148.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 115.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 103.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…299fbacked Yes | 68c | 97.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 54c | 95.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 77c | 74.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 45c | 62.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 57.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 45c | 55.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 24c | 55.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 49c | 55.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 39c | 53.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed No | 62c | 48.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 63c | 46.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 32c | 44.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 75c | 44.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 44c | 41.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 63c | 36.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 38c | 33.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 23.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 52c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 71c | 17.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 71c | 14.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 77c | 14.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 71c | 14.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.