Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf5f4278074b344542cc788771efe1c987f0cac33c6dc8ecb14a4ded6a66c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 1,800$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.99 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked No | 47c | 1,172$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.77 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 62c | 998.97$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.96 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 43c | 970.83$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.34 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067c…0577backed Yes | 74c | 908.77$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 32c | 753.26$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.22 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 41c | 720.04$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.81 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed No | 49c | 409.42$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.45 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 220$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d85…0d82backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…ee34backed Yes | 51c | 180.64$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Yes | 71c | 140.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…f1a1backed Yes | 69c | 118$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1788…6c66backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 43c | 36.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…17b7backed Yes | 61c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e8…311cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…34a1backed Yes | 74c | 28.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4d…0b8fbacked Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 18?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 18?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 18?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 18?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 18?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.