Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcec011b5859562024aef50bd02a564822cfc5fb9f4f75aa2054470d8a5b1f06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 19c | 972.83$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.39 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed No | 47c | 927.86$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…3c34backed Yes | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed No | 45c | 838.21$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.39 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 47c | 805.77$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.49 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…28e7backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 66c | 439.39$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.39 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 38c | 400.21$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 292 | 36.3%106 W · 186 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 43c | 297.59$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 229.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Yes | 52c | 172.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…5090backed No | 57c | 156.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 37c | 113.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed No | 56c | 105.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…29fbbacked Yes | 32c | 101.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 100.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…9644backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…b506backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…c8a3backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057b…1a20backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 20c | 95.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…17b7backed No | 57c | 52.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6289…cd99backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…9d72backed No | 64c | 30.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…3d74backed No | 45c | 27.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 46c | 25.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 23.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…81a5backed No | 76c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 18?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 18?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 18?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 18?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 18?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.