MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb788cabfc7422fe3fea62479489b3baab85f4a9cfdf319f802ca555b2fd386d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 49c | 7,899$3,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,870.6 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…cbe4backed Under | 51c | 3,865$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 49c | 1,591$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.31 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 49c | 1,458$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.75 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 1,098$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.84 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…b180backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 900 | 53.6%482 W · 418 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 51c | 960.78$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 50c | 909$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.5 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 64c | 523.51$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 5c | 475$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 50c | 440.51$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.42 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 5c | 232$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…7faabacked Over | 51c | 190.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 49c | 189.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 50c | 160.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 153.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 80.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…ef47backed Over | 50c | 41.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…584cbacked Over | 50c | 33.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 45c | 33.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 42c | 29.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d7…f0e9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.