MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48b8a754f285983bf4d76d654f8b82ae48bf47a79880e3ce205fc0d91b8b9c2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 1,349$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.65 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 19c | 1,070$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 1,020$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.86 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 919.97$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.99 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 868.36$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 521.31$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 330.91$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 287.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 239.27$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 26c | 234$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 225.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 201.53$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 132.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 74.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 67.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 58.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 56.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 43.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 42.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 35.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 33.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…2c8ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 29.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -8.4wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -54%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 29.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.