Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeba5b5cc2f150400239a31efc48b7472dc856d6c6adad52f9922e8bddd208095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Virtus.pro, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Inner Circle | 45c | 4,568$2,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,515.21 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Inner Circle | 47c | 2,040$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.39 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Virtus.pro | 55c | 1,903$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.49 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Virtus.pro | 55c | 1,584$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.72 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8875…7548backed Virtus.pro | 54c | 837.75$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.26 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Virtus.pro | 57c | 749.99$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.45 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Virtus.pro | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Virtus.pro | 54c | 709.05$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.35 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…efabbacked Virtus.pro | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Inner Circle | 50c | 502$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Inner Circle | 44c | 448.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.45 | 324 | 41.7%135 W · 189 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4377…74c2backed Inner Circle | 44c | 331.82$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.82 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Inner Circle | 66c | 293.46$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Inner Circle | 42c | 206$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Inner Circle | 47c | 149.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Virtus.pro | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdc…3a4ebacked Inner Circle | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Inner Circle | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Inner Circle | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Inner Circle | 38c | 99.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Virtus.pro | 56c | 97.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Inner Circle | 43c | 92.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Virtus.pro | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Virtus.pro | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Virtus.pro | 51c | 67.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Virtus.pro | 35c | 53.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Virtus.pro | 20c | 53.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Inner Circle | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Inner Circle | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Inner Circle | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…e1b9backed Virtus.pro | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…f6c5backed Virtus.pro | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Virtus.pro | 56c | 43.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Virtus.pro | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Inner Circle | 45c | 34.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 282 | 52.1%147 W · 135 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Inner Circle | 49c | 23.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.