Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeba87d5cf73416d97ef44f667f2ac3f7e55f73b9697ed66c86fa322f710dc9f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 48c | 521.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 415.13$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 359.02$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 200.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 49c | 198.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 52c | 176.79$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 164$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 49c | 156.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 60c | 154.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 147.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 136$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 112.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 52c | 110.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 105.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 43c | 102.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 48c | 99.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 18c | 96.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 48c | 78.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 28c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 51c | 65.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 56c | 59.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 48c | 53.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…1149backed Yes | 52c | 46.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 42.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 38.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 38.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 38.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 37.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 33.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 40c | 30.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 29.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 62c | 27.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 48c | 25.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…619abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 49c | 24.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 19.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 51c | 19.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 19.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.