South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebbbe09bcfcea8a7a0121f4b7623ff606b227b5587297a0a93e239b0d8741eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 63c | 75,177$47,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,532.74 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 36c | 12,202$4,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,392.72 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 37c | 11,430$4,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,172.3 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 9,963$3,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,657.97 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 36c | 8,661$3,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,157.7 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 5,916$2,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.92 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…7191backed Over | 37c | 3,834$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.12 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 37c | 2,655$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.8 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x568e…6980backed Over | 36c | 2,639$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 2,186$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.4 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Over | 36c | 1,818$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.64 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 36c | 875.43$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.07 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 64c | 856.09$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.19 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 36c | 685.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 35c | 572.89$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.18 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 36c | 568$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.48 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e6d4backed Over | 36c | 487$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…1c05backed Over | 36c | 450$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Over | 36c | 443$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.48 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 37c | 437.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…28d3backed Over | 40c | 395.93$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.37 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 65c | 370$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 38c | 325$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 38c | 325$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 36c | 300$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 38c | 299.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 32c | 289.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 36c | 243$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 38c | 241.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 35c | 234$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 36c | 227.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 38c | 225$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 38c | 205.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Over | 36c | 194.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 38c | 144.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 36c | 139$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 38c | 137.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Over | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…0840backed Over | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over | 36c | 96.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4d…398dbacked Over | 37c | 95.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Over | 36c | 88.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Over | 29c | 87.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc12…c741backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 38c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1d…3ca2backed Over | 41c | 56.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…c6bbbacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 37c | 54.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Over | 31c | 53.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Over | 37c | 53.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 37c | 46.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e83…b22fbacked Over | 37c | 43.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…2650backed Under | 72c | 41.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c02…44e5backed Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9df…e090backed Over | 38c | 31.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb439…7418backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Over | 38c | 26.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fd…4df6backed Under | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5this page
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.