South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb370ec160e2885b172879e8401718d517a292fb633b032c29ef72e03bc490bc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 36c | 18,500$6,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,639.86 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 64c | 6,176$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.67 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Over | 64c | 2,328$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.13 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 64c | 1,133$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 65c | 992.28$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.3 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 36c | 789.75$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.31 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 64c | 650$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 64c | 650$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 565.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.72 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Over | 64c | 510.5$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.78 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 472.87$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.51 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 64c | 450$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 64c | 350.95$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.34 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 300.73$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…0d22backed Over | 58c | 275.86$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 64c | 257$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 67c | 251.16$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 64c | 238.52$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…a7d5backed Under | 32c | 218.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa467…587dbacked Under | 47c | 195.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 64c | 189.23$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…1c05backed Over | 64c | 124$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 64c | 124$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 44c | 117.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…a5fdbacked Over | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 64c | 102.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…1104backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…2c66backed Over | 53c | 77.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 48 | 85.4%41 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 60c | 70.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 63c | 61.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…c6bbbacked Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed Under | 31c | 35.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 64c | 31.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Over | 68c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over | 64c | 27.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Over | 45c | 25.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 64c | 23.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 64c | 22.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 65c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…64dabacked Over | 56c | 22.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Over | 64c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb439…7418backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…e4cbbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9891…102bbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5this page
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.