MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebdf71c2b11705c7e679a20f6890db2d818f96fe929ee2c559a08aaa88878296
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 47c | 4,121$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.72 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 53c | 1,470$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.84 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.21 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 46c | 1,171$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.11 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 47c | 1,039$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.62 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 927.79$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 596$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…40aabacked Under | 54c | 540.22$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.72 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 45c | 519$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.26 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 55c | 486.5$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.58 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 55c | 380.44$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.16 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 43c | 290.62$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.62 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 46c | 265.09$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 64c | 229.83$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 53c | 216.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 200.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 53c | 190.14$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 55c | 179.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 68c | 178.85$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 55c | 173.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 53c | 158.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 47c | 154.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.89 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 47c | 146.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 44c | 135.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 129.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 62c | 126$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 55c | 123.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 54c | 119.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 69c | 97.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 93.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 47c | 92.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 47c | 92.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 54c | 80.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…76ccbacked Under | 55c | 79.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 44c | 70.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 54c | 55.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 31c | 54.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 55c | 54.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 54c | 52.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 60c | 43.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 34c | 41.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…8004backed Under | 55c | 40.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…a48dbacked Over | 47c | 39.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Under | 54c | 36.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 54c | 33.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 54c | 33.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 54c | 33.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 31.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 52c | 28.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 52c | 28.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 58c | 27.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Over | 54c | 26.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 25.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 55c | 19.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 19.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 59c | 18.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 69c | 17.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 15.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.