Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebe1ddf35263e495b97d3becd6da5202e221b52b121c59c4a9357d18c79fb5b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c2…c023backed MOUZ | 62c | 4,861$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.79 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 3,880$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.5 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 1,047$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.11 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…2927backed Natus Vincere | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 902$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.66 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed MOUZ | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ | 63c | 468.08$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.94 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 66c | 350$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…233cbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 294$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed MOUZ | 77c | 230.22$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efe…8b8ebacked MOUZ | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked MOUZ | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…e6d1backed MOUZ | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 139.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed MOUZ | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 128.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed MOUZ | 68c | 94.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed MOUZ | 67c | 79.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed MOUZ | 69c | 67.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked MOUZ | 52c | 62.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…f428backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…b96cbacked MOUZ | 68c | 57.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ | 59c | 53.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 41.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed MOUZ | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…c013backed MOUZ | 70c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…f692backed MOUZ | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…be67backed MOUZ | 65c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Series: MOUZ Kill Handicap (-8.5)Natus Vincere won
- Series: MOUZ Kill Handicap (-9.5)Natus Vincere won
- Series: Most kills?Natus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.