TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,601

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4aa0…ca20backed MOUZ54c8,747$4,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7602653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Natus Vincere47c7,010$3,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,715.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere56c7,007$3,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.7453451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ51c5,587$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.0573841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9671…3a70backed MOUZ1c5,555$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.77160%0 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere43c4,218$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.7325444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed MOUZ0c3,684$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.496169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Natus Vincere43c2,903$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.319148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae17…b10dbacked MOUZ62c2,108$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Natus Vincere63c1,791$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.092965.5%19 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+32.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ50c1,758$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.292,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e8…2cf2backed MOUZ70c1,430$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed MOUZ39c1,132$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.9754753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere35c1,039$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.5246535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed MOUZ46c1,031$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.2647748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked MOUZ56c1,000$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.3829047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Natus Vincere40c999.91$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.951957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed MOUZ65c928.6$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.463050%15 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ49c842.56$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.141,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked Natus Vincere49c842.41$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.288544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere35c800$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.7436054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed MOUZ55c749$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.659955.6%55 W · 44 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Natus Vincere41c746.86$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.1837745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked MOUZ58c721.12$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.145932.2%19 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2d0…6078backed Natus Vincere41c600$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3544254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ60c563.33$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33847660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa824…c9fcbacked Natus Vincere39c515.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.518053.3%96 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26e7…c6e2backed MOUZ59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Natus Vincere41c423$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5718550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Natus Vincere48c419.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.24666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed MOUZ35c375.77$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.446354.6%253 W · 210 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked MOUZ59c346.2$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.2625348.6%123 W · 130 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1307…d640backed MOUZ59c342.47$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.06366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ58c340.56$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5358152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Natus Vincere41c299.99$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.993461.8%21 W · 13 L+6.0wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+45%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked MOUZ42c287.32$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1986949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Natus Vincere39c256.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.6611753%62 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked MOUZ16c254.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7879.2%8 W · 79 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed MOUZ57c241.98$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9364744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked MOUZ53c213.39$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.821520%3 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Natus Vincere41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1183100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+76.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ52c194.21$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6954445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere31c188.06$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.068636%31 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed MOUZ47c184.1$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3387645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed MOUZ59c180.32$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10741248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed MOUZ27c173.08$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.071020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9333…3fa5backed MOUZ60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7fc…1511backed Natus Vincere24c163.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.361625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked Natus Vincere46c154.86$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.862650%13 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad0e…101cbacked MOUZ59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb876…ae6ebacked Natus Vincere68c147.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.072850%14 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Natus Vincere24c142.62$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.391428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked MOUZ36c139.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Natus Vincere42c130$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.45356.6%30 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf056…b5dfbacked Natus Vincere47c120$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.61471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+41.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Natus Vincere50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0531245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked MOUZ36c116.02$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.122740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b0…ad2cbacked MOUZ58c116$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.621062.4%131 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8df0…96a6backed MOUZ51c114.23$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.753847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Natus Vincere36c111.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1161449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed Natus Vincere43c110.02$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2720535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3b…9194backed Natus Vincere46c109.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.181353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2806…6de8backed MOUZ46c107.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011344.2%50 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x687c…8c91backed MOUZ48c103.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a05…4c5abacked Natus Vincere51c102.86$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.549478.7%74 W · 20 L+13.0wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+20.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked MOUZ33c100.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.22123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75f6…1601backed Natus Vincere35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5565…7693backed Natus Vincere36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed MOUZ56c99.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5629550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4092056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed MOUZ58c99.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9973743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed MOUZ61c99.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010945%49 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed MOUZ53c89.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6925639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1324…aa38backed Natus Vincere42c89.62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12a1…4e4dbacked MOUZ27c84.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc079…8881backed Natus Vincere70c83.4$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.02955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38bb…3542backed Natus Vincere51c78.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed MOUZ48c69.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3379343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked MOUZ58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015250%76 W · 76 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Natus Vincere46c68.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9413238.6%51 W · 81 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed MOUZ52c67.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed MOUZ39c67.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.358037.5%30 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Natus Vincere50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3017342.8%74 W · 99 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked MOUZ54c59.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3923640.7%96 W · 140 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac2…b76ebacked Natus Vincere44c56.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.371758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed MOUZ65c54.11$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3523347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa08a…ad51backed MOUZ58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked MOUZ55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.59651%49 W · 47 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…807fbacked MOUZ50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af1…7b88backed Natus Vincere42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Natus Vincere41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4917638.6%68 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed MOUZ52c46.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.893839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked MOUZ58c45.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2353139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed MOUZ58c44.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262450%12 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Natus Vincere47c44.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3834063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Natus Vincere42c43.89$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.465244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca0…a27cbacked Natus Vincere46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.482766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce0a…2d88backed Natus Vincere47c42.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.566867.6%46 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c97…e1a3backed Natus Vincere47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.552356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f93…dd62backed MOUZ51c41.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.