Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x252b8be4a4a30784118d493de89e6f29f966abb9a1bbd0ea6cedb85bf73624d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ | 61c | 6,290$3,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,811.76 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…3a70backed MOUZ | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed MOUZ | 0c | 4,478$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…2927backed MOUZ | 12c | 3,095$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.97 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 2,735$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.23 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 1,567$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.57 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 971$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.61 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…7ee9backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 752$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 10c | 682.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 648.66$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.68 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked MOUZ | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…5f54backed MOUZ | 60c | 266.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked MOUZ | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 228.63$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 218.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe145…b8f7backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 204.63$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 178.44$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 169.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…241dbacked MOUZ | 63c | 158$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…9698backed MOUZ | 63c | 158$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…e6d1backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 158$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…29b8backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 158$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed MOUZ | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 135.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed MOUZ | 14c | 124.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 122.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ | 46c | 113.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed MOUZ | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed MOUZ | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…f991backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 77.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…b76ebacked MOUZ | 40c | 57.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…68dfbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed MOUZ | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked MOUZ | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked MOUZ | 39c | 39.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…c013backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 37.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…3d22backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked MOUZ | 41c | 24.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…be67backed MOUZ | 60c | 17.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Series: MOUZ Kill Handicap (-8.5)Natus Vincere won
- Series: MOUZ Kill Handicap (-9.5)Natus Vincere won
- Series: Most kills?Natus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.