Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebe498eba0a17db94eef8449d641b68475c33e712cd5803da3f04b658e38d161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 861.92$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 685.17$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 24c | 385.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 338.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked Yes | 74c | 314.37$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.51 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 6c | 278.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 13c | 273.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 248.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 248.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 231.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.18 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes | 59c | 204.42$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 17c | 193.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 11c | 166.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1b…0979backed Yes | 77c | 153.69$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 70c | 148.94$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 143.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 138.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 16c | 131.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 10c | 127.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 120.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 119.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 10c | 117.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 78c | 115.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 16c | 104.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes | 15c | 99.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 41c | 91.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 12c | 86.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 86.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 16c | 84.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked Yes | 18c | 81.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes | 20c | 80.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 45c | 74.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 71c | 68.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…7076backed Yes | 16c | 66.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 65.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 22c | 63.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 63.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 27c | 60.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 25c | 60.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 65c | 58.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 18c | 57.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 18c | 55.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 26c | 55.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 20c | 53.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 58c | 53.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 73c | 52.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…e1ccbacked Yes | 49c | 49.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 49.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 35c | 44.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 42.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 73c | 41.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 73c | 40.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…3f04backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed Yes | 79c | 39.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 35.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 35.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 33c | 35.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 77c | 30.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…5e85backed No | 72c | 27.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked No | 74c | 26.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…8e3bbacked Yes | 63c | 25.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 48c | 22.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 74c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9611…f9aabacked Yes | 53c | 19.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 70c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.