Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf13c15e13add993a3516acbdc49a9908e52c295e19595c488f046c18a9827f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 15c | 1,417$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.72 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,326$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.81 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 850.58$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 4c | 743.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 41c | 694.47$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 651.5$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 53c | 417.6$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.32 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 72c | 399.54$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.27 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 80c | 368.47$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 21c | 358.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 343.56$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 319.79$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 10c | 318.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 21c | 259.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 6c | 248.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…05c7backed No | 30c | 239.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 80c | 198.55$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 51c | 191.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.14 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed No | 25c | 190.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 30c | 180.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 79c | 177.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 173.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 61c | 170.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…66aabacked No | 14c | 161.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 45c | 161.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 40c | 160$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 158.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…5901backed Yes | 77c | 157.41$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 21c | 156.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 149.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 71c | 144.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 14c | 136.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 29c | 130.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 15c | 119.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 41c | 103.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 74c | 100.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 72c | 87.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 65c | 87.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 79c | 87.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 70c | 87.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 56c | 85.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5396backed No | 59c | 81.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 34c | 77.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 56c | 77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 64c | 75.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 20c | 73.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 19c | 72.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 80c | 72.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 64c | 72.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 77c | 71.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 44c | 70.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45be…0f0bbacked Yes | 24c | 66.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…1215backed Yes | 75c | 64.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 78c | 64.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 50c | 56.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…c7d5backed Yes | 77c | 54.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 51.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 48.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 24c | 48.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 47.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 24c | 46.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 36c | 45.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 64c | 44.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 40c | 44.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 51c | 44.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 24c | 42.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 61c | 41.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…17fbbacked Yes | 61c | 40.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf113…0cc7backed Yes | 35c | 36.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 54c | 35.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 72c | 34.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 64c | 33.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 51c | 33.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 45c | 33.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…1b96backed No | 39c | 32.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 40c | 31.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 46c | 31.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…79ccbacked Yes | 44c | 28.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed Yes | 56c | 25.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 70c | 25.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 73c | 25.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 50c | 24.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe3…9ee3backed Yes | 64c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 80c | 21.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331f…d739backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 17.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 57c | 17.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.