TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,925
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,583

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,925 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0eee…74e8backed No15c1,417$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.7240025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes79c1,326$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.8130919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes36c850.58$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.385,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83a3…4d2bbacked No4c743.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.598151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x953f…7518backed No41c694.47$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.63745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No38c651.5$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes53c417.6$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.321,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3773…f0ddbacked No72c399.54$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.273756.8%21 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes80c368.47$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.287146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc0b…961fbacked No21c358.72$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.399436.2%34 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No40c343.56$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.768,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c319.79$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked No10c318.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329428.7%27 W · 67 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No21c259.79$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.61,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked No6c248.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.581,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf648…05c7backed No30c239.95$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.381118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-69%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed Yes80c198.55$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2428839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes51c191.6$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.149747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed No25c190.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2274023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No30c180.27$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.132,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes79c177.51$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.037744.2%34 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c173.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.897,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes61c170.14$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.839535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b9…66aabacked No14c161.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes45c161.26$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.021,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes40c160$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.84030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes29c158.77$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.761,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…5901backed Yes77c157.41$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No21c156.41$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4259121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No31c149.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.834,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes71c144.24$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.481,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No14c136.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1242130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No29c130.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7231341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ae4…bd41backed No15c119.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.993345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No14c105$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.219,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes41c103.65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.391,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes74c100.32$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2630652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.84143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes72c87.79$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.271,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba96…7080backed Yes65c87.55$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4412560.8%76 W · 49 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2810…d40fbacked Yes79c87.24$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.634748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes70c87.16$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.893644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes56c85.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.269,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e37…5396backed No59c81.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.951546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No34c77.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9259440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes56c77$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x990e…cecfbacked Yes64c75.23$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.032568%17 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x809c…4861backed No20c73.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.443342.4%14 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes19c72.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6227421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes80c72.52$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.511172.1%80 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x866d…f673backed Yes64c72.3$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.039054.4%49 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes77c71.57$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.465048%24 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes44c70.12$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4861929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45be…0f0bbacked Yes24c66.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.371030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948f…1215backed Yes75c64.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.961457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes78c64.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9119160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No50c56.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.822,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48dc…c7d5backed Yes77c54.89$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59c8…0247backed Yes78c51.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.282568%17 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes49c51.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.197,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1114134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes79c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.625239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.512033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3027540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes27c48.78$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.522,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No24c48.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.531,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes79c47.73$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.025,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No24c46.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.091,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes36c45.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0414829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes64c44.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked Yes40c44.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6431262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No51c44.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.781,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f59…9e40backed Yes24c42.54$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.376131.1%19 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes61c41.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.233,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…17fbbacked Yes61c40.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.771850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf113…0cc7backed Yes35c36.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes54c35.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.525853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc935…74cfbacked Yes51c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.151145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes72c34.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6728648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes64c33.92$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.293138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes51c33.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4157614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No45c33.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe53d…1b96backed No39c32.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x766e…75f6backed Yes40c31.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2216518.2%30 W · 135 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No46c31.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4612567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3222…79ccbacked Yes44c28.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed Yes56c25.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2724370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes70c25.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5735362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes73c25.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.859270.7%65 W · 27 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes50c24.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2811938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes80c24.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.92,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbe3…9ee3backed Yes64c22.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e99…9584backed Yes80c21.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.383762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f90…b54abacked Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.48459.5%50 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd731…4199backed Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.29273.9%68 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x331f…d739backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b5…4768backed Yes80c18.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.682254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No57c17.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2599962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4667…20f2backed Yes57c17.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.684117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.