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La Liga · resolved market

Spread: CA Osasuna (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
RC Celta de Vigoof CA Osasuna, RC Celta de Vigo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,023 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9977…3020backed RC Celta de Vigo76c4,000$3,028 inWon+$971.731442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed CA Osasuna5c3,020$151 inLost-$1513930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde3d…6b1fbacked CA Osasuna6c1,667$100 inLost-$1003545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8206…4826backed CA Osasuna6c1,576$95 inLost-$94.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked CA Osasuna21c1,375$287 inLost-$286.574738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked RC Celta de Vigo68c1,346$915 inWon+$430.83,57142.6%1,522 W · 2,049 L+26.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked CA Osasuna32c1,206$386 inLost-$385.83030%9 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03c9…d8c1backed CA Osasuna36c1,112$400 inLost-$400.32944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3968…85b5backed CA Osasuna36c1,112$400 inLost-$400.32944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed CA Osasuna4c1,034$40 inLost-$39.992443%397 W · 527 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked RC Celta de Vigo79c789.67$628 inWon+$162.1251048.6%248 W · 262 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked CA Osasuna5c522.2$26 inLost-$26.112,39448.4%1,159 W · 1,235 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed CA Osasuna29c347.22$100 inLost-$10038144.9%171 W · 210 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed CA Osasuna5c302.82$15 inLost-$15.141,64538.6%635 W · 1,010 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked CA Osasuna15c299.99$45 inLost-$44.720225.2%51 W · 151 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f58…d93abacked RC Celta de Vigo58c245.75$143 inWon+$102.734250%21 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x579a…b0a7backed CA Osasuna31c245.52$75 inLost-$754431.8%14 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked CA Osasuna72c186.82$134 inLost-$133.947561.3%46 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe368…e9edbacked CA Osasuna27c183.52$49 inLost-$493928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked CA Osasuna11c120$13 inLost-$12.724134.1%14 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcde4…c9febacked CA Osasuna38c78.94$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.