Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec3bd2cc3ccdf0a59ca92b91ae7139a438dd6608bfa60e4e71faa068c752f833
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,379$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 14c | 529.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 79c | 398.71$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 398.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 21c | 332.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 16c | 289.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 578 | 27.9%161 W · 417 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 11c | 273.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 19c | 228.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 15c | 168.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 155.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 122.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 14c | 110.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 35c | 109.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 108.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 997 | 37.8%377 W · 620 L | +79.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 41c | 104.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 16c | 100.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 362 | 18.8%68 W · 294 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 90.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 17c | 89.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 307 | 33.2%102 W · 205 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 18c | 77.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 343 | 34.4%118 W · 225 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 69.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 63.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 62.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 20c | 61.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed No | 63c | 59.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 20c | 56.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +9.3wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 25c | 55.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 192 | 9.9%19 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 49.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 58c | 33.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked No | 69c | 29.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 79c | 27.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 553 | 36%199 W · 354 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cc…f2fdbacked No | 57c | 23.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 80c | 23.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 390 | 70.5%275 W · 115 L | +65.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 75c | 17.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 79c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 80c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C or higher on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.