Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ade506afbd9ad14def93df14b89008f033987b6b66632930a7764fea9c973d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2d4…299dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,246$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 55c | 600.92$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.26 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…2da3backed Yes | 47c | 445.6$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 36c | 392.15$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.39 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 44c | 232.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 224.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…3618backed Yes | 65c | 158.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 44c | 155.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 69c | 137.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…9270backed Yes | 11c | 135$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 113.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 113$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 30c | 110.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 42c | 110.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 15c | 107.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 36c | 104.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 578 | 27.9%161 W · 417 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 97.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 36c | 90.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 45c | 88.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 86.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 38c | 86.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 82.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 80.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 68.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 66.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 24c | 63.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 35c | 57.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 55c | 54.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 52.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 51.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 37c | 40.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 46c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 37c | 39.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 42c | 35.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…e136backed Yes | 60c | 35.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 38c | 34.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 62.3%71 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 44c | 32.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 45c | 30.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 30.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 29.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 40c | 26.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cc…f2fdbacked No | 60c | 26.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 45c | 24.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…cbb0backed Yes | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…3351backed Yes | 59c | 19.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 69c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 60c | 18.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 55c | 18.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…4977backed No | 79c | 12.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C or higher on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.