Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa958652872cc2883ce7a834231d80a214a087d3f7ddf6c704a8bdfcbdaf574e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11fb…db4fbacked No | 60c | 433.34$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 424.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 77c | 331$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.73 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 5c | 286.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 284.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcd…5df4backed No | 7c | 272.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 216.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.13 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked No | 78c | 210$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 15c | 201.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 9c | 184.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 25c | 183.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.14 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 32c | 176.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.86 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 36c | 144.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 37c | 134.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 132.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…3618backed No | 79c | 126.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 49c | 123.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 120.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 106.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 42c | 100.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 24c | 81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 33c | 78.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 27c | 73.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 114 | 62.3%71 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 67.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 67.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 56.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 55.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 55.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 70c | 54.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 54.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 19c | 53.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 29c | 52.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +9.3wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 44c | 50.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 997 | 37.8%377 W · 620 L | +79.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 578 | 27.9%161 W · 417 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 24c | 49.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 30c | 47.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 50c | 45.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 76c | 38.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 343 | 34.4%118 W · 225 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 76c | 34.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 168 | 63.7%107 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed Yes | 31c | 34.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e70…7182backed No | 78c | 32.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 72c | 21.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 53c | 20.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 17.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 14.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C or higher on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.