CS2 · resolved market
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Wildcard (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec558868122ea469e421008b84eb194e13b9b4f653f4bcecdbebc5d28ce1d27e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TheMongolzof TheMongolz, Wildcard
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Wildcard | 55c | 7,555$4,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,182.56 | 5,028 | 55%2,763 W · 2,265 L | +112.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…91a0backed TheMongolz | 42c | 2,854$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.21 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Wildcard | 58c | 1,749$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.53 | 2,610 | 51.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed TheMongolz | 42c | 1,272$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.26 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked TheMongolz | 48c | 1,220$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.8 | 751 | 45.4%341 W · 410 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked TheMongolz | 42c | 1,022$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.09 | 384 | 44.3%170 W · 214 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked TheMongolz | 46c | 843.85$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.28 | 1,476 | 51.8%765 W · 711 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed TheMongolz | 49c | 555$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked TheMongolz | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…02febacked TheMongolz | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Wildcard | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 386 | 50.8%196 W · 190 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb11…7901backed TheMongolz | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…d35dbacked TheMongolz | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed TheMongolz | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed TheMongolz | 42c | 396.33$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.87 | 480 | 40%192 W · 288 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed TheMongolz | 45c | 278.59$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.35 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Wildcard | 55c | 255.16$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.34 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked Wildcard | 58c | 244.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…95a0backed TheMongolz | 48c | 142.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed TheMongolz | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 306 | 39.5%121 W · 185 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed TheMongolz | 42c | 77.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 1,828 | 47.6%871 W · 957 L | -54.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked TheMongolz | 51c | 63.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 5,474 | 46.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed TheMongolz | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed TheMongolz | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed TheMongolz | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bf…b83cbacked Wildcard | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed TheMongolz | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed TheMongolz | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 499 | 47.5%237 W · 262 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Wildcard | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc545…3e4cbacked Wildcard | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Wildcard (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierTheMongolz won
- Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz - Map 1 WinnerTheMongolz won
- Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz - Map 2 WinnerTheMongolz won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Wildcard (+3.5)TheMongolz won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Wildcard (+1.5)TheMongolz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.