TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof Wildcard, TheMongolz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$439,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$525,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $439,482 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Wildcard35c19,000$6,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,642.5836453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked TheMongolz77c15,820$12,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,700.122468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Wildcard29c13,366$3,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,870.071,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27c5…6d61backed Wildcard43c10,712$4,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,651.936934.8%24 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Wildcard50c8,805$4,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,415.8141040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed TheMongolz61c8,594$5,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,351.776160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Wildcard41c7,498$3,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,085.185,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed TheMongolz67c6,331$4,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.526271%44 W · 18 L+12.9wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+38.2%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed TheMongolz58c5,821$3,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,44817062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e23…1c3dbacked TheMongolz73c5,480$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.451266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed TheMongolz78c5,311$4,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.5219057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed TheMongolz57c5,200$2,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2361,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Wildcard42c5,200$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,198.5621854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Wildcard40c5,078$2,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,042.8816946.7%79 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed TheMongolz67c4,604$3,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.9340264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x782f…b46abacked TheMongolz56c4,589$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,018.984850%24 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed TheMongolz73c4,555$3,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.82040%8 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed TheMongolz62c4,447$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.6610749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcc6…5928backed Wildcard42c4,385$1,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+79.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Wildcard32c3,809$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.031,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9015…281fbacked TheMongolz57c3,660$2,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.86854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed Wildcard45c3,475$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.76450%32 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Wildcard43c3,470$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.91,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Wildcard22c2,549$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.782,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked TheMongolz66c2,431$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.521,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed TheMongolz57c2,380$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.48652.3%45 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56d…c3d9backed Wildcard16c2,375$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3754835.4%17 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed TheMongolz73c2,347$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.5887047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Wildcard40c2,332$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.7728843.1%124 W · 164 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Wildcard22c2,312$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.5822241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed TheMongolz55c2,300$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.4911149.5%55 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked TheMongolz64c2,235$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.6775245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Wildcard28c2,099$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.6616633.7%56 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfca7…5e0abacked TheMongolz57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8601060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked TheMongolz55c1,979$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.659839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa453…b665backed Wildcard31c1,971$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.259655.2%53 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed TheMongolz57c1,859$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.122,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked TheMongolz60c1,744$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.242,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Wildcard27c1,697$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.562,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61b…05e5backed TheMongolz60c1,627$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.01977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x270e…53cabacked TheMongolz62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.238454.8%46 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Wildcard30c1,600$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.9288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847f…459ebacked TheMongolz56c1,503$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.28728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Wildcard38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.615251.3%78 W · 74 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked TheMongolz64c1,492$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.191,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc38…3c4cbacked TheMongolz57c1,464$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.523857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Wildcard34c1,459$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.2540253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked TheMongolz74c1,444$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3751,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5803…7a85backed TheMongolz61c1,399$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.611850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffe3…eaafbacked Wildcard44c1,375$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.81838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked TheMongolz49c1,366$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.0838454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed Wildcard40c1,311$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.393540%14 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461d…db9ebacked TheMongolz77c1,300$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2995052%26 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed TheMongolz55c1,298$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.12,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed TheMongolz67c1,270$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.6713655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…3eb8backed Wildcard31c1,194$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.278461.9%52 W · 32 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Wildcard43c1,190$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.959755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8af8…adc5backed Wildcard43c1,060$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked TheMongolz74c1,030$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.819741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Wildcard40c1,024$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.627753.8%149 W · 128 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Wildcard42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42015838%60 W · 98 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf95e…53ffbacked TheMongolz55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45019849.5%98 W · 100 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Wildcard35c999.97$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9950846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed TheMongolz62c991.12$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.6335953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked TheMongolz60c983.66$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.941,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Wildcard39c734.29$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29052837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked TheMongolz57c732$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.762842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1448…e868backed TheMongolz58c729.5$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.57138%27 W · 44 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Wildcard38c726.8$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.033,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d4d…6be9backed Wildcard29c721.23$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.4944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed TheMongolz63c714.64$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.3558745%264 W · 323 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Wildcard39c699.84$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.212,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Wildcard31c631.05$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.323,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6810…1c7dbacked TheMongolz77c620.36$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.242969%20 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Wildcard38c561$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.553,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked TheMongolz56c553.44$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.5119443.3%84 W · 110 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Wildcard28c546.58$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.741,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked Wildcard9c535.75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9322729.1%66 W · 161 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Wildcard32c535.69$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.884,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3885…2cd8backed TheMongolz59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4715150.3%76 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5c…a98ebacked TheMongolz58c501.57$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed TheMongolz59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20546340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked TheMongolz58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21039548.6%192 W · 203 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Wildcard39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1954553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed TheMongolz56c499.95$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.981,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed TheMongolz66c488.3$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0320755.1%114 W · 93 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1378…dbd2backed Wildcard44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010658.5%62 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked TheMongolz63c428.58$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.445,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3016…9ffdbacked Wildcard4c426.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.536127.9%17 W · 44 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed TheMongolz72c421.11$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9442154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Wildcard40c420.8$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17025846.1%119 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed Wildcard27c368.02$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6672139.7%286 W · 435 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5233…eb29backed TheMongolz56c351.64$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.422556%14 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f20…934fbacked Wildcard34c349.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7632463%204 W · 120 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed TheMongolz76c344.27$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8241475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0378…7634backed Wildcard44c340.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505959.3%35 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed TheMongolz59c335$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.3521952.5%115 W · 104 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Wildcard30c332.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.322,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed TheMongolz63c318.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0540048.8%195 W · 205 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed TheMongolz65c299.14$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.755043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.