CS2 · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4335d7854740c86d020994087093ffb5a4fc0e582f35a4fd365ec84c62abb346

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,180
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,180 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Over	44c	3,924$1,729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,729.4	5,050	55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L	+117.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Under	56c	3,740$2,094 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,645.54	1,496	51.5%771 W · 725 L	-7.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	47c	338.3$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.79	2,326	45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L	-62.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under	56c	216.93$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.55	2,622	47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L	-33.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Under	75c	193.76$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.88	1,365	66.3%905 W · 460 L	+76.1wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Under	53c	151.8$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.34	266	50.8%135 W · 131 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb342…64b2backed Over	35c	142.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Under	53c	139.02$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.34	882	42.3%373 W · 509 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Over	12c	129.73$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	664	36.6%243 W · 421 L	-35.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	73c	125$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.75	2,776	37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L	-140.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Over	40c	118.36$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.29	160	38.1%61 W · 99 L	-10.4wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under	53c	113.45$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.32	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under	64c	112.27$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.46	1,630	43.2%704 W · 926 L	-32.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Under	54c	111.74$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.4	1,310	53.7%703 W · 607 L	+32.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	55c	110.39$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.68	447	47.2%211 W · 236 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Under	66c	107$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.88	1,083	42.1%456 W · 627 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Over	42c	100.29$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	207	55.1%114 W · 93 L	+11.2wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	25c	98.85$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.49	3,459	29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L	-279.9wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Over	22c	95.29$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.69	1,650	32.7%540 W · 1,110 L	-49.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Under	69c	70.62$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.65	686	59.5%408 W · 278 L	+65.9wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed Under	61c	61.77$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.09	721	39.7%286 W · 435 L	-25.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbba7…1e07backed Under	58c	51.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.72	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa338…2acabacked Over	47c	48.94$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	82	39%32 W · 50 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a0c…66f7backed Over	47c	48.94$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed Under	54c	48.15$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.15	331	56.5%187 W · 144 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4290…af07backed Over	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	40.7%22 W · 32 L	-5.8wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked Under	56c	43.27$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.04	46	54.3%25 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Over	46c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	347	42.9%149 W · 198 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x442f…e80fbacked Over	45c	31.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-2.7wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed Under	78c	31.71$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under	53c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.06	491	49.9%245 W · 246 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under	52c	24.69$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.85	288	43.1%124 W · 164 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c5…c8ddbacked Over	47c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Under	65c	21$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.34	5,287	31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L	-383.3wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca5f…41f5backed Under	71c	19.67$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierTheMongolz won
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz - Map 1 WinnerTheMongolz won
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz - Map 2 WinnerTheMongolz won
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Wildcard (+3.5)TheMongolz won
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Wildcard (+3.5)TheMongolz won
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Wildcard (+1.5)TheMongolz won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event