AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec59ed7daa70b2f97879fdd16816f4e7b398aa198e297089a6feab98ccd7b197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 8,528$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.78 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 29c | 772.96$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.6 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes | 10c | 669.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 588.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 9c | 468.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 462$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 458.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…cdc6backed Yes | 7c | 400.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 397.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 25c | 382.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 39c | 333.56$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.23 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 273.78$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 144.48$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…5c0dbacked Yes | 47c | 138$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…5e79backed Yes | 47c | 137$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00cc…ca79backed Yes | 47c | 134$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc83…546cbacked Yes | 47c | 133$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…ddc9backed Yes | 47c | 127$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97a…f9afbacked Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 10c | 124.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…9d01backed Yes | 47c | 122$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…acecbacked Yes | 47c | 121$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…e387backed Yes | 47c | 119$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7a…d6aabacked No | 53c | 119$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…5e7ebacked No | 53c | 116$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 112.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…744ebacked No | 53c | 112$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bb…53c4backed No | 53c | 109$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd3…628bbacked No | 53c | 108$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd9…ca6bbacked No | 53c | 106$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…2e6ebacked No | 53c | 106$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edd…13cdbacked No | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…998fbacked No | 53c | 104$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…6989backed No | 53c | 104$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 99.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…271cbacked No | 53c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 26c | 64.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 51c | 62.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…fec1backed Yes | 43c | 58.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 35c | 50.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 40c | 47.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ce…39dfbacked Yes | 52c | 38.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f4…1c9cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.