AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62aa4a33b2a98e7d86b5681bfd07d6ea4acfa98323415f9c27b65b984f1ca731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 34c | 2,506$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.96 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 2,300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 46c | 2,246$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.6 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 78c | 1,656$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.87 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 71c | 1,070$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.56 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 33c | 880.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.28 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 36c | 776.32$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 77c | 750$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.4 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 50c | 619.78$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.69 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 2c | 614.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 32c | 578.63$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.64 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 52c | 514.96$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.82 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 70c | 352.99$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 38c | 275.85$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 73c | 272.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed Yes | 79c | 250$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 29c | 229$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 200.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.22 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…534fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…8417backed No | 21c | 185$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 51c | 162.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 79c | 142.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a7…7ea8backed Yes | 33c | 137$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0768…4ed1backed Yes | 33c | 134$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb075…9916backed Yes | 33c | 132$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa2…dbf0backed Yes | 32c | 128$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2226…0553backed Yes | 32c | 126$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…6ba6backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3d…e3c7backed Yes | 33c | 124$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…4a94backed Yes | 32c | 119$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf889…3b72backed Yes | 32c | 118$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…ba5abacked Yes | 33c | 117$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…7b98backed Yes | 33c | 115$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa310…cd6abacked Yes | 32c | 115$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec67…288cbacked Yes | 32c | 114$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…4599backed Yes | 32c | 114$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7316…e4a2backed Yes | 33c | 109$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5812…a714backed Yes | 33c | 107$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 17c | 105.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 23c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x398f…f28ebacked No | 67c | 96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b7…5974backed No | 67c | 95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…472bbacked No | 67c | 94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…ebb8backed No | 67c | 94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…df4fbacked No | 68c | 94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d9…6521backed No | 68c | 94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7b…36a6backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…2a3abacked No | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…1c54backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f7…da20backed No | 67c | 89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…a827backed No | 68c | 88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8094backed No | 68c | 88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3019…12e6backed No | 67c | 88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 20c | 87.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x654f…8d08backed No | 67c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 84.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…cc8cbacked No | 67c | 84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…b073backed No | 68c | 84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…0bd1backed No | 68c | 84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b0…2c20backed No | 67c | 84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…a550backed No | 68c | 83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9c…2b98backed No | 68c | 83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…81c5backed No | 68c | 81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 39c | 79.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7729…c6cabacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked Yes | 73c | 72.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 57c | 66.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 59c | 64.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 47.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607b…b839backed No | 67c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 38c | 26.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.