TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof Team Falcons, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,350
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,685

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,350 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons65c25,827$16,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,674.3755157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ34c13,772$4,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,141.8645139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons65c6,422$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed MOUZ37c5,555$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,511.232854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ38c4,823$1,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,971.641,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Team Falcons62c4,773$2,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,959.2413558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed MOUZ35c4,346$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,846.3720949.3%103 W · 106 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ40c2,714$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.442,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed MOUZ37c2,409$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.0518143.6%79 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked MOUZ39c2,022$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.0910342.7%44 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Falcons4c1,649$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2640014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Falcons65c1,543$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00047660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ35c1,457$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed MOUZ38c1,287$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.8410334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed MOUZ51c600$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29736054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed MOUZ41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.81,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…98abbacked Team Falcons64c312.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015546.5%72 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ60c298.58$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.761,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed Team Falcons46c291.3$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1342445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe82d…d96bbacked MOUZ35c220$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dc0…5f47backed Team Falcons32c209.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.23943.6%17 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ43c202.29$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.731,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Team Falcons36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7213657.4%78 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Team Falcons67c159.76$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.049053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked MOUZ79c156.33$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.015044%22 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b84…48e3backed MOUZ38c131.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.793050%15 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked MOUZ38c130$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.688166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0bde…237abacked MOUZ38c126.15$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.51683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+76.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed MOUZ38c126$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.1264744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed MOUZ73c106.2$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.875046%23 W · 27 L-7.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-30%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Team Falcons27c103.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281520%3 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-55.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ78c103.58$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe64b…3499backed Team Falcons63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635052%26 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1698…68e8backed Team Falcons64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed MOUZ54c76$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9636051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked MOUZ77c75.68$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4722954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Falcons67c75.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2373554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed MOUZ41c60.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9813449.3%66 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked MOUZ50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2522654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Team Falcons20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1072637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Team Falcons20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed MOUZ33c42.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1613946%64 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x252f…2561backed Team Falcons63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.231659.8%189 W · 127 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f4d…6c41backed Team Falcons43c38.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons70c37.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4358152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…b8d2backed Team Falcons54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d69…1dc4backed Team Falcons63c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.161963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked MOUZ39c31.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.051330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9332…a3dbbacked Team Falcons65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2076048.6%369 W · 391 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Team Falcons68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.426661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed MOUZ35c29.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.579343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf774…3821backed MOUZ38c29.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+81.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed MOUZ37c27.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.091,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Team Falcons62c24.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520952.6%110 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed Team Falcons63c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.12825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick56cpaid-66.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Team Falcons67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.450757.4%291 W · 216 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Team Falcons61c16.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2955561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.