Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1175a78ec99f34a53eea1780b52c3b2fc761a3a0492fec8f75ba65a6d92a2237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Team Falcons, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Team Falcons | 1c | 8,280$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed MOUZ | 70c | 5,491$3,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons | 29c | 3,631$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.01 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked MOUZ | 70c | 2,415$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.88 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons | 26c | 1,851$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.29 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked MOUZ | 29c | 1,156$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.59 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons | 76c | 1,155$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.02 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…76c3backed Team Falcons | 79c | 1,142$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ | 24c | 1,057$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.22 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons | 67c | 1,041$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Falcons | 28c | 903$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.84 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked MOUZ | 20c | 682.26$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.81 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…811ebacked Team Falcons | 21c | 599.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Falcons | 22c | 573.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.89 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ | 77c | 567.71$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed MOUZ | 79c | 415.97$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ | 26c | 259.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.62 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Team Falcons | 28c | 251.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…96eabacked MOUZ | 77c | 245.63$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Team Falcons | 60c | 232$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…d11fbacked MOUZ | 78c | 225.1$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1698…68e8backed Team Falcons | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed MOUZ | 37c | 196.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Team Falcons | 34c | 159.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed MOUZ | 40c | 155$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Falcons | 40c | 149.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Team Falcons | 67c | 140$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ | 33c | 132.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…e0c5backed Team Falcons | 76c | 130$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons | 43c | 124.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Team Falcons | 19c | 108.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed Team Falcons | 69c | 107.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Falcons | 64c | 107.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed MOUZ | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed MOUZ | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed MOUZ | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked MOUZ | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked MOUZ | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed MOUZ | 33c | 88.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed MOUZ | 36c | 79.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Team Falcons | 64c | 75.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 30c | 66.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Team Falcons | 47c | 63.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…21fbbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 62.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Team Falcons | 20c | 59.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 138 | 27.5%38 W · 100 L | -15.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Team Falcons | 68c | 54.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bd…dd13backed Team Falcons | 58c | 51.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked Team Falcons | 64c | 45.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Falcons | 28c | 43.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…3302backed Team Falcons | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Team Falcons | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4723…5687backed MOUZ | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Team Falcons | 64c | 26.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed MOUZ | 39c | 25.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…83b3backed Team Falcons | 68c | 25.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…97b2backed Team Falcons | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Team Falcons | 76c | 16.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.