Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf620318f01e8ee79578b83cb6ccc13f2680784c0fdbe984507acbc58a3807c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Team Falcons, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Team Falcons | 70c | 7,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ | 68c | 4,039$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.76 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed MOUZ | 30c | 3,890$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.09 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 30c | 3,743$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.49 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed MOUZ | 29c | 3,105$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.79 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons | 67c | 2,993$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…f8fabacked Team Falcons | 71c | 2,459$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed Team Falcons | 63c | 2,434$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.33 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed MOUZ | 36c | 2,433$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,563.82 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons | 61c | 2,036$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.36 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ | 40c | 2,016$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.6 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Team Falcons | 79c | 1,955$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.92 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ | 33c | 1,497$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.5 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ | 31c | 1,453$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.34 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.48 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed MOUZ | 25c | 1,180$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.12 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ | 33c | 895.52$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons | 67c | 895.52$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 27c | 857.92$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.15 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Team Falcons | 54c | 746.47$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 671.83$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Team Falcons | 60c | 612.92$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.15 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed MOUZ | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons | 24c | 487.55$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.23 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…a353backed Team Falcons | 76c | 423.99$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.76 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -6.4wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Team Falcons | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…7a53backed Team Falcons | 68c | 395.38$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.86 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Falcons | 69c | 369$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.61 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ | 32c | 325.57$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.39 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons | 31c | 319.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e0…0d61backed Team Falcons | 27c | 305$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed MOUZ | 33c | 300.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.88 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Team Falcons | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Falcons | 68c | 202$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Team Falcons | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed MOUZ | 42c | 199.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed MOUZ | 30c | 185.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Team Falcons | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 168.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ | 41c | 160$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed MOUZ | 79c | 152.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 454 | 57.5%261 W · 193 L | +39.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Falcons | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Team Falcons | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Falcons | 37c | 138.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed MOUZ | 66c | 137.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 127.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 118.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed MOUZ | 50c | 109.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd537…0f7cbacked MOUZ | 64c | 106.67$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Team Falcons | 45c | 101.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Falcons | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1698…68e8backed Team Falcons | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…6078backed MOUZ | 61c | 81.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ | 31c | 81.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d69…1dc4backed Team Falcons | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MOUZ | 22c | 69.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Team Falcons | 68c | 67.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked MOUZ | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 60.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…b8d2backed Team Falcons | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Team Falcons | 68c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c1…5981backed Team Falcons | 69c | 52.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…21d9backed Team Falcons | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Team Falcons | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…a5b6backed Team Falcons | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Team Falcons | 66c | 45.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed MOUZ | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Team Falcons | 77c | 39.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d2…f804backed Team Falcons | 60c | 32.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…2bc6backed Team Falcons | 71c | 25.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…8b3abacked Team Falcons | 71c | 24.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 240 | 52.1%125 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Team Falcons | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 60.7%105 W · 68 L | -13.6wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Team Falcons | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.