MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec6b772fa10627b96fd44f98e2738488caf088adf484decd352bd57abd30cc88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 2,200$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 33c | 1,652$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 1,409$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 54c | 1,050$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.48 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 47c | 303.16$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.64 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 56c | 280$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 201$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 53c | 195$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 55c | 189$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 47c | 175.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 52c | 139.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 46c | 127.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 118.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 47c | 118.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 50c | 111.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 47c | 108.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 46c | 103.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 54c | 102.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 46c | 99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 64c | 65.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 46c | 60.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 56c | 51.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 52c | 39.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 45c | 33.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 55c | 33.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 30.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Under | 46c | 30.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 24.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 54c | 22.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 71c | 16.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-5.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.