MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78f8902f0523908f1984413e4a5731194728d0168576d9b9ba282386554ea18e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Mets | 43c | 44,444$19,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,333.05 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 15,192$8,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,659.44 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 13,988$7,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,973.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…b325backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 8,475$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 1,450$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.5 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 1,024$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.68 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 877.2$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 877.2$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 861.86$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.88 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 696.99$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.69 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 568.91$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.77 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 54c | 568.77$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.74 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 65c | 306$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 298.48$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 263.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 239.58$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked New York Mets | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 233.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed New York Mets | 41c | 213.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Mets | 42c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed New York Mets | 43c | 199.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 193$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed New York Mets | 37c | 189.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 189.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 189$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.51 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 188.14$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed New York Mets | 43c | 166.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked New York Mets | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 110.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 105.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 99.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 76.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c81…8f47backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Mets | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked New York Mets | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked New York Mets | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 43c | 43.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked New York Mets | 44c | 41.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed New York Mets | 38c | 39.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed New York Mets | 44c | 39.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 39.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…0359backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed New York Mets | 44c | 34.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2f…ad3cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-5.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.