Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec8d18452e5f684bf4628b6d156661b2c60fde3ff580465e480e91b59308225f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,806 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 6,792$4,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.72 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b4…7730backed Yes | 18c | 2,167$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 28c | 1,915$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.37 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 39c | 1,294$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.26 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Yes | 10c | 1,228$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 1,104$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.96 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 861.84$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.08 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…0e4abacked Yes | 66c | 809.09$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…b48fbacked Yes | 74c | 741.68$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 32c | 681.64$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.27 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yes | 10c | 583$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 21c | 448.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 409.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 25c | 394.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 59c | 310.98$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 16c | 279.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 76c | 273.45$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Yes | 23c | 231.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…9476backed No | 79c | 217.12$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 72c | 177.5$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked No | 74c | 174$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…9bf0backed Yes | 26c | 174$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 53c | 172.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 41c | 158.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed No | 36c | 143.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 72c | 135.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 16c | 110.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…746fbacked No | 75c | 105.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 27c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 73c | 90.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 66c | 85.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ab3dbacked No | 75c | 84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…1dd7backed No | 36c | 82.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 72c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…3a77backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…214bbacked No | 37c | 68.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…6cecbacked No | 75c | 62.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 50c | 61.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 65c | 59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Yes | 23c | 57.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked No | 37c | 56.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 26c | 55.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 61c | 53.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…431dbacked Yes | 28c | 51.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Yes | 73c | 50.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 37c | 48.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked No | 79c | 45.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +84%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…03a8backed No | 75c | 45.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…4745backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 58c | 28.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 42c | 28.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Yes | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418c…4a41backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…0822backed Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-03-22?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-03-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.