TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,340 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under75c1,455$1,093 inWon+$361.211,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Under74c999.99$740 inWon+$26014062.1%87 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over25c954.5$239 inLost-$238.941,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over20c635.73$130 inLost-$129.51,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over4c352.08$14 inLost-$14.0848344.9%217 W · 266 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over26c337.32$88 inLost-$87.768150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under74c150.85$112 inWon+$39.233,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under73c137.7$100 inWon+$37.531,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over24c126.51$30 inLost-$30.4671443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over24c125$30 inLost-$304323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-46.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over26c124.16$32 inLost-$32.2852923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under74c120$89 inWon+$31.232848.8%160 W · 168 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfb…2ac5backed Under77c110.39$85 inWon+$25.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over27c70.52$19 inLost-$19.0439435.8%141 W · 253 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked Under74c67.57$50 inWon+$17.575676.8%43 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under73c61.18$45 inWon+$16.521,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under79c60$47 inWon+$12.8531446.5%146 W · 168 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c52…99e1backed Under75c53.33$40 inWon+$13.336100%6 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over40c45.6$18 inLost-$18.3596756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc45…03c4backed Over27c41.33$11 inLost-$11.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under79c30$24 inWon+$6.344447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.