Mls · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x452befa5da1ed2f6ace50c1abf8e3a8fb48702cd1816f194addefea712912dca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portland Timbersof Los Angeles FC, Portland Timbers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Los Angeles FC | 3c | 4,205$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Los Angeles FC | 37c | 2,783$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.49 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Portland Timbers | 63c | 1,189$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.93 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf851…ef53backed Los Angeles FC | 37c | 900.08$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles FC | 8c | 690.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Portland Timbers | 65c | 620.9$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.27 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Los Angeles FC | 6c | 614.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Los Angeles FC | 36c | 566.41$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.91 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Los Angeles FC | 4c | 348.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Portland Timbers | 63c | 300$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Portland Timbers | 63c | 279.9$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Portland Timbers | 59c | 207$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.11 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8d…b0e1backed Los Angeles FC | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Portland Timbers | 64c | 184.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Portland Timbers | 63c | 176.07$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Los Angeles FC | 39c | 120.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles FC | 35c | 107.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e40…56c1backed Portland Timbers | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Portland Timbers | 77c | 104.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Portland Timbers | 64c | 98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb751…8d99backed Portland Timbers | 64c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Los Angeles FC | 17c | 68.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708b…6412backed Portland Timbers | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Portland Timbers | 64c | 60.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Los Angeles FC | 41c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Portland Timbers | 59c | 37.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Los Angeles FC | 41c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Portland Timbers | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Portland Timbers | 65c | 20.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Portland Timbers | 65c | 19.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Portland Timbers | 63c | 18.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Los Angeles FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Los Angeles FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Los Angeles FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.