Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdda1727bf4b877dbfba1b45ebb93c4413fae5c2c102105a9595e5f48649d1407
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 37c | 2,431$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.5 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 1,349$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.04 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 66c | 1,239$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.27 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Over | 61c | 986.32$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 64c | 542.97$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.06 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 53c | 424.49$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.52 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Under | 37c | 423.9$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.62 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 50c | 356.82$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.85 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 50c | 303.58$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.55 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 47c | 299.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 43c | 274.87$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.16 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 52c | 272$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 55c | 198.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 63c | 185.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 56c | 184.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 50c | 175.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 71c | 136.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 98.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 61c | 89.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 64c | 85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 55c | 83.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 79.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 48c | 76.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Under | 70c | 73.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4c6cbacked Under | 21c | 67.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 57c | 50.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…6f17backed Over | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 44.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 47c | 35.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Over | 65c | 25.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 46c | 24.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Los Angeles FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Los Angeles FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Los Angeles FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.