MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeceabcba46dfa416a40c8aafa10f718042c545bb6f006e3c98f260f8537f2f4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 43c | 16,866$7,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,252.38 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 13,352$7,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,656.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 1,773$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 31c | 1,347$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.08 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 990.56$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 10c | 662.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 357.07$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.89 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 33c | 344$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 57c | 300.76$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.33 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 244.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 36c | 224.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 62c | 221.86$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 60c | 192.56$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 58c | 135$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 118$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 19c | 114.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 74c | 106.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 46c | 77.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 55.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Under | 57c | 55.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 43c | 52.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…a581backed Over | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 49.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 53c | 47.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 66c | 44.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 44.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 59c | 39.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 57c | 36.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 61c | 29.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 58c | 24.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 64c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.