NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Hornets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0abc966777f5861a610d8083e6082060acd8ea719ce57d8efebe2a4761baba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $270,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd673…0c20backed Hornets | 15c | 22,500$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,375 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Hornets | 28c | 22,373$6,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,272.21 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Nuggets | 73c | 18,297$13,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,939.84 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Hornets | 10c | 10,400$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.45 | 345 | 32.8%113 W · 232 L | -16.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Hornets | 15c | 7,803$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.47 | 368 | 43.8%161 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Hornets | 14c | 7,143$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Hornets | 33c | 6,901$2,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,257.08 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Hornets | 13c | 6,145$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.52 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Hornets | 6c | 5,368$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.51 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets | 13c | 5,066$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.65 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Hornets | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 0%0 W · 335 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hornets | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Hornets | 0c | 4,700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Hornets | 8c | 4,000$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Hornets | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Hornets | 14c | 2,680$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.2 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Hornets | 14c | 2,144$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.16 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa38…ffb3backed Hornets | 12c | 1,714$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 109 | 25.7%28 W · 81 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…f0ddbacked Hornets | 14c | 1,667$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.42 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Hornets | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e4…51debacked Hornets | 11c | 1,307$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…0e3ebacked Hornets | 14c | 1,300$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Hornets | 12c | 1,268$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Hornets | 14c | 1,250$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Hornets | 14c | 1,084$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.08 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Hornets | 29c | 1,040$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.85 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Hornets | 30c | 1,034$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.37 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Hornets | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 227 | 21.6%49 W · 178 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked Hornets | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 510 | 37.5%191 W · 319 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Hornets | 14c | 989.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.13 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +52.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Hornets | 25c | 980$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed Hornets | 13c | 949.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 364 | 34.9%127 W · 237 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Hornets | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…bb32backed Hornets | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Hornets | 31c | 606.39$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.97 | 709 | 51.3%364 W · 345 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Hornets | 14c | 536$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Hornets | 14c | 505$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 855 | 42%359 W · 496 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Hornets | 10c | 475$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 192 | 31.3%60 W · 132 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Hornets | 13c | 385.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Hornets | 13c | 380.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Hornets | 6c | 368.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 119 | 34.5%41 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Hornets | 13c | 337.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Hornets | 30c | 290.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Hornets | 14c | 285.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 25.6%43 W · 125 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Hornets | 29c | 210.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 186 | 32.8%61 W · 125 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Hornets | 15c | 208.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Nuggets | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,197 | 46.7%559 W · 638 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…f3aebacked Hornets | 15c | 150.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…ffdbbacked Hornets | 15c | 146.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Hornets | 32c | 145.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…5093backed Hornets | 16c | 135$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 155 | 38.1%59 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Nuggets | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 481 | 37.2%179 W · 302 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f75…9902backed Hornets | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Hornets | 14c | 115.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Hornets | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 190 | 38.4%73 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…f78dbacked Hornets | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed Hornets | 13c | 100.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 156 | 13.5%21 W · 135 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Hornets | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 261 | 24.1%63 W · 198 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Hornets | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 388 | 45.9%178 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a9…dd6abacked Hornets | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Hornets | 13c | 99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 930 | 41.9%390 W · 540 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…d871backed Hornets | 12c | 91.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 196 | 50%98 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07e…7617backed Hornets | 15c | 80.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Hornets | 15c | 76.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 949 | 51.3%487 W · 462 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca58…b37fbacked Hornets | 14c | 72.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…e87fbacked Hornets | 30c | 36.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…d530backed Hornets | 51c | 26.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…cad3backed Nuggets | 77c | 24.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…3012backed Nuggets | 80c | 13.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x763b…7f7cbacked Nuggets | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.