TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Maryville University - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maryville Universityof Dorado Gaming, Maryville University
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,724 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb039…c6d9backed Maryville University78c2,504$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.116750.9%85 W · 82 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Maryville University61c2,126$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.152,02030.5%617 W · 1,403 L-172.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe410…d4d1backed Dorado Gaming50c1,972$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.5715751.6%81 W · 76 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Dorado Gaming7c1,864$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.951,14338.8%444 W · 699 L-46.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Maryville University24c1,773$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.2334858%202 W · 146 L+19.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Dorado Gaming47c1,707$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001,22358.1%710 W · 513 L+43.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Dorado Gaming48c1,433$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.5661154.7%334 W · 277 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Maryville University79c1,409$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.5269259.7%413 W · 279 L+75.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Maryville University53c1,404$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.871,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Dorado Gaming57c1,375$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.991,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked Maryville University62c1,333$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.8148147.2%227 W · 254 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked Dorado Gaming49c942.85$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.224554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed Dorado Gaming45c804.5$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.670757%403 W · 304 L+35.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdee7…1ad7backed Dorado Gaming35c715.71$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25013463.4%85 W · 49 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a93…8e36backed Maryville University71c703.7$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.710365%67 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Maryville University46c644.54$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.628839.8%35 W · 53 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Maryville University58c617.14$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.1946451.7%240 W · 224 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa940…9bf1backed Dorado Gaming10c578.59$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.944242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed Maryville University52c571.83$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.8327749.1%136 W · 141 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Maryville University59c538.01$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.251,09147.4%517 W · 574 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Dorado Gaming23c481.78$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.672,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Dorado Gaming25c472.96$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.961,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Maryville University66c465.48$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.781,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Dorado Gaming47c449.55$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.291,61643.8%708 W · 908 L-74.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed Maryville University59c439.24$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1855045.3%249 W · 301 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Dorado Gaming35c415.01$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7519937.2%74 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x811a…9a3cbacked Dorado Gaming49c410.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010851.9%56 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Dorado Gaming24c403.21$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.344938.1%171 W · 278 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Dorado Gaming35c390$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.872,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Maryville University66c388.66$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.391,85239.8%738 W · 1,114 L-64.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Dorado Gaming7c350$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.594644.6%422 W · 524 L-2.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Maryville University60c347.21$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.9530049.7%149 W · 151 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78e8…3c36backed Dorado Gaming48c341.23$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7919335.2%68 W · 125 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceb0…9fdbbacked Maryville University46c337$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.233928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Maryville University59c301.51$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.331,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Maryville University57c301.25$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.031,08546.2%501 W · 584 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Dorado Gaming39c300.23$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.321,93942.2%819 W · 1,120 L-46.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f5b…2501backed Dorado Gaming50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506642.4%28 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x998c…142dbacked Dorado Gaming26c292.85$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759641.7%40 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked Dorado Gaming56c270$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020336.9%75 W · 128 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1407…e56cbacked Dorado Gaming17c267$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3910936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec21…33dcbacked Dorado Gaming17c267$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.398137%30 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Maryville University56c212.11$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.271,05650.4%532 W · 524 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed Maryville University75c206.16$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5435758.5%209 W · 148 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked Dorado Gaming35c203.04$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2321940.6%89 W · 130 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b39…1f68backed Maryville University61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7819846%91 W · 107 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9845…9d6fbacked Dorado Gaming61c200$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.611844.9%53 W · 65 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f95…bf8ebacked Dorado Gaming61c200$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.614642.5%62 W · 84 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8421…4e30backed Maryville University65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7014941.6%62 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ce…d485backed Dorado Gaming61c200$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.615343.8%67 W · 86 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Dorado Gaming65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13045937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5819…2b4fbacked Dorado Gaming47c193.63$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0152149.9%260 W · 261 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Dorado Gaming23c190.15$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9335642.4%151 W · 205 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Dorado Gaming24c172$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.662,33039.4%919 W · 1,411 L-83.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe302…a986backed Dorado Gaming33c169$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.372157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f19…474ebacked Dorado Gaming61c163.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019637.8%74 W · 122 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Maryville University50c162.33$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.691,34847.3%637 W · 711 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x797b…26d2backed Maryville University75c160$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4012449.2%61 W · 63 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36de…cf07backed Maryville University71c153.92$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9215359.5%91 W · 62 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Maryville University29c151$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.0597744.8%438 W · 539 L-30.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4041…60f0backed Dorado Gaming61c150$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9516543%71 W · 94 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked Maryville University63c146.98$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3815753.5%84 W · 73 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8af5…4bbabacked Dorado Gaming25c142.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6316241.4%67 W · 95 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5275…9379backed Dorado Gaming37c141.67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.676051.7%31 W · 29 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Maryville University64c128.79$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6630731.6%97 W · 210 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5abe…d360backed Dorado Gaming61c128.55$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.817746.3%82 W · 95 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed Dorado Gaming17c124$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0820842.3%88 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b1…51b8backed Dorado Gaming60c120$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210839.8%43 W · 65 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Maryville University65c120$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4226939%105 W · 164 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Dorado Gaming49c112.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.831,91237.1%709 W · 1,203 L-115.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Maryville University62c111.42$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1319844.4%88 W · 110 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Dorado Gaming35c106.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.442,36440.7%963 W · 1,401 L-57.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked Maryville University73c106.18$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1510779.4%85 W · 22 L+14.5wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+17.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Dorado Gaming55c106$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0121944.7%98 W · 121 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8e…985dbacked Dorado Gaming48c103.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.718355.4%46 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Maryville University65c102.7$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9422838.6%88 W · 140 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Maryville University71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.139154.2%212 W · 179 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bbb…0ac2backed Maryville University65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3516242%68 W · 94 L-0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb46…ed08backed Maryville University26c99.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9932736.7%120 W · 207 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf19…8869backed Dorado Gaming30c96.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.865825.9%15 W · 43 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf006…bf1ebacked Dorado Gaming50c96$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4869746.8%326 W · 371 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Dorado Gaming51c95.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8295551.7%494 W · 461 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd2…2b8fbacked Dorado Gaming48c93.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4544051.4%226 W · 214 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x050c…bf27backed Dorado Gaming47c89.92$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2218848.9%92 W · 96 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f98…cb91backed Dorado Gaming39c86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.319444.7%42 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Maryville University63c84.83$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4813544.4%60 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44e…284abacked Dorado Gaming61c81.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019838.9%77 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Dorado Gaming59c75.91$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5248357.1%276 W · 207 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58f…cec8backed Dorado Gaming58c72.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.849161.5%56 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b21…1f5cbacked Dorado Gaming42c71.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.998150.6%41 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc99…e38bbacked Dorado Gaming45c71.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.929268.5%63 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Dorado Gaming20c71.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261,60817.5%282 W · 1,326 L-245.3wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x37ca…f644backed Dorado Gaming47c67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4924858.1%144 W · 104 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5a…f616backed Maryville University77c65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6911464%73 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Maryville University52c62.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8988544.3%392 W · 493 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe598…e597backed Maryville University36c57.59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.947451.4%38 W · 36 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ba4…f918backed Maryville University61c55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4520639.8%82 W · 124 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed Maryville University68c54.6$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.620966.5%139 W · 70 L+29.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb978…fac0backed Dorado Gaming58c53.07$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9515361.4%94 W · 59 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x25e2…425dbacked Dorado Gaming58c52.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.993844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.