Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed7a98e991c87cc70b69a864cf57c8855f3f9031c4dd962cd6074cecadc9dbd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b75…d0edbacked Yes | 4c | 1,078$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 13c | 556.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 76c | 221.45$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 63c | 191.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ee…cc59backed Yes | 71c | 174.14$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 24c | 170.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 43c | 142.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 55c | 132.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 17c | 121$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 109.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…7d38backed Yes | 64c | 105.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa6…5146backed Yes | 60c | 99.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 48c | 92.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 79c | 88.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 26c | 84.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 34c | 78.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc5…9436backed No | 56c | 74.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…f57ebacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 28c | 69.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…9717backed No | 76c | 67.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 41c | 64.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 20c | 62.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…4e84backed Yes | 25c | 62.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…a1bebacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…0bfabacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…d9f3backed Yes | 65c | 56.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…ac1dbacked Yes | 35c | 53.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 30c | 50.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…f1b8backed Yes | 46c | 49.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…eb65backed No | 61c | 48.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…81c4backed Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 46c | 43.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…afc5backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 56c | 40.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…57c7backed Yes | 41c | 35.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…1829backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 30c | 34.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…ad79backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec26…c346backed Yes | 46c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 41c | 28.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…748fbacked Yes | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…22b9backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…5302backed No | 49c | 25.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7768…246abacked Yes | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6a…a50bbacked Yes | 54c | 24.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…e547backed Yes | 59c | 21.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…d7fabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…9f2cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4216…72acbacked No | 64c | 18.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on January 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on January 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on January 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.