CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Butterfly - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9596f9e3a606adac92f30e0a2bd3a08f29c9a4dfece6567afc47996ab03df5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Just Playersof Just Players, Butterfly
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2906…555abacked Butterfly | 58c | 346.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…0635backed Butterfly | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 309 | 49.2%152 W · 157 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…96bcbacked Just Players | 54c | 177.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…09a6backed Just Players | 45c | 155$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Butterfly | 18c | 150.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 717 | 39.6%284 W · 433 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Just Players | 42c | 133.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Just Players | 47c | 131.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 3,415 | 29.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L | -275.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Butterfly | 74c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 482 | 51.7%249 W · 233 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Just Players | 39c | 117.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 269 | 39%105 W · 164 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Butterfly | 15c | 115.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 2,467 | 24.6%606 W · 1,861 L | -318.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Butterfly | 34c | 103.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked Butterfly | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Just Players | 39c | 98.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 490 | 50.6%248 W · 242 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Just Players | 33c | 87.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 2,309 | 45.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L | -62.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed Butterfly | 66c | 86.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4038…35e4backed Butterfly | 60c | 72.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd7…70ddbacked Just Players | 79c | 71.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Just Players | 60c | 68.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Just Players | 35c | 68.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Butterfly | 52c | 66.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 185 | 35.1%65 W · 120 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Butterfly | 64c | 61.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 278 | 38.1%106 W · 172 L | -16.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Butterfly | 47c | 59.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Just Players | 54c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 2,454 | 34.4%845 W · 1,609 L | -189.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Just Players | 42c | 54.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 232 | 35.3%82 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Butterfly | 65c | 52.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 160 | 38.1%61 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Just Players | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 2,491 | 41.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L | -114.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d51…71a5backed Just Players | 71c | 48.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Just Players | 56c | 44.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 388 | 38.7%150 W · 238 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…f571backed Just Players | 56c | 44.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd2…0985backed Just Players | 39c | 40.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Just Players | 47c | 38.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 4,661 | 43.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Just Players | 40c | 34.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 1,828 | 47.6%871 W · 957 L | -54.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Butterfly | 69c | 33.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 3,888 | 36.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L | -197.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Just Players | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 230 | 56.1%129 W · 101 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Butterfly | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Just Players | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,034 | 54.9%568 W · 466 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Just Players | 68c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 690 | 41.9%289 W · 401 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Just Players | 53c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 2,330 | 42.5%991 W · 1,339 L | -71.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Butterfly | 70c | 28.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Butterfly | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,830 | 41.6%762 W · 1,068 L | -68.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…4c18backed Butterfly | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Just Players | 46c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 292 | 46.9%137 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…2285backed Butterfly | 57c | 24.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…30a9backed Just Players | 74c | 23.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…38c8backed Butterfly | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Butterfly - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Butterfly (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 PlayoffsButterfly won
- Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Butterfly - Map 2 WinnerButterfly won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.