Australian A League · resolved market
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed98eb891fa7b1feabbd3b9cafe87775ec4ad3b41aded66cc2f33996b4781897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,699 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 2,350$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.99 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 56c | 968.08$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.12 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 706.9$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Over | 56c | 532.58$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 44c | 515.69$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.79 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 42c | 431$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.98 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…8ec8backed Under | 44c | 335.69$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 152.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 18c | 138.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 18c | 138.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…3b29backed Over | 56c | 126.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 57c | 126.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…cbc0backed Over | 56c | 122.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 29c | 108.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Over | 45c | 105.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 97.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 56c | 87.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Over | 56c | 85.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 30c | 66.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 31c | 53.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 49.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 44c | 49.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 43c | 41.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 32c | 40.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…5971backed Over | 33c | 36.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 45c | 29.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 44c | 24.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 51c | 23.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…9378backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…b718backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 57c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.