TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,318
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,297

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,318 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Colorado Rockies56c21,018$11,700 inLost-$11,699.8160350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers44c8,748$3,828 inWon+$4,919.5212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers47c4,842$2,265 inWon+$2,576.9911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Milwaukee Brewers44c4,202$1,849 inWon+$2,352.841,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Milwaukee Brewers44c2,043$907 inWon+$1,135.921,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers76c1,136$861 inWon+$274.978,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Colorado Rockies44c681.8$300 inLost-$299.992,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers42c637.19$268 inWon+$369.093,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Colorado Rockies16c556.05$92 inLost-$91.751,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Milwaukee Brewers43c162.79$70 inWon+$92.7947549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Milwaukee Brewers43c130.23$56 inWon+$74.2354651.3%280 W · 266 L+29.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Milwaukee Brewers43c100$43 inWon+$576839.7%27 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…2a53backed Milwaukee Brewers36c99$36 inWon+$63.369455.3%52 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Milwaukee Brewers43c93.02$40 inWon+$53.0227646.7%129 W · 147 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x700b…8d0bbacked Milwaukee Brewers50c88.54$44 inWon+$44.278944.9%40 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x738e…dc37backed Milwaukee Brewers44c85.4$37 inWon+$48.068949.4%44 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers47c73.86$35 inWon+$38.8410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers64c66.06$42 inWon+$23.975,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57fe…13c1backed Milwaukee Brewers44c63.64$28 inWon+$35.646131.1%19 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Milwaukee Brewers50c60.06$30 inWon+$30.0346952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Colorado Rockies51c53.9$28 inLost-$27.681,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Colorado Rockies43c53$23 inLost-$22.775,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Milwaukee Brewers43c52.41$22 inWon+$30.0558054.5%316 W · 264 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d8…cf06backed Milwaukee Brewers50c48$24 inWon+$241643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers42c44.31$18 inWon+$25.856,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Milwaukee Brewers47c42.17$20 inWon+$22.354,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacee…afddbacked Milwaukee Brewers41c36.59$15 inWon+$21.5921751.6%112 W · 105 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Colorado Rockies53c34$18 inLost-$18.023,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Milwaukee Brewers69c33.4$23 inWon+$10.192,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dfb…f1b7backed Milwaukee Brewers44c30.37$13 inWon+$16.9231963%201 W · 118 L+27.5wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+8.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8527…9a7fbacked Colorado Rockies63c26$16 inLost-$16.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Milwaukee Brewers42c25.58$11 inWon+$14.9617842.7%76 W · 102 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Milwaukee Brewers62c19$12 inWon+$7.322848.2%110 W · 118 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.