MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc96aaee2436d5daccbe5494efc19ba215750a648c079c2d209a093149d598d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 7,714$3,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,537.03 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 5,937$3,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 528.98$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 57c | 526.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.61 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 522.34$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 467.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 367$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.15 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ec…6452backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 308.38$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Over | 44c | 212.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 187$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 122.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 101.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 57c | 61.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 59c | 61.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 57.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 38.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 54c | 32.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 45c | 30.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 43c | 30.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 56c | 22.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under | 57c | 18.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado RockiesMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-6.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.