Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedc975a2b451aac6ada5f09769a31482897ddcf02adfc2291752bfcf97c46e72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Over | 43c | 6,092$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.71 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 18c | 3,100$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 57c | 2,771$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.57 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 57c | 2,188$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.88 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 30c | 1,500$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.89 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 940.6$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.46 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 16c | 649.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 12c | 627.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 42c | 599.34$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.91 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Under | 58c | 499.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…0758backed Over | 42c | 488.59$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 57c | 420$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 18c | 405$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 302.43$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 271.34$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 254.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 57c | 208$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 43c | 200.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 44c | 193.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 18c | 164.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 15c | 120.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Under | 78c | 113.86$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 57c | 110.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Under | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 69c | 68.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Over | 34c | 57.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 35c | 52.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 29c | 39.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 65c | 39.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 78c | 37.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 73c | 28.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Over | 44c | 26.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Under | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 41c | 25.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…3418backed Over | 43c | 24.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 76c | 23.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 61c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked Under | 72c | 17.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.