Lol · resolved market
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd6f583beb92839a74d2c5c66bb26cfe6b87d82056580c57a78b2f2e0eb8fe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 50c | 6,100$3,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,029 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 50c | 3,529$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0f…2e31backed Yes | 46c | 3,191$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9c…cec3backed No | 54c | 2,774$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4613…8c44backed No | 60c | 2,750$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…1a4bbacked Yes | 51c | 2,541$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 50c | 2,172$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed No | 15c | 700$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +323.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb10d…3797backed No | 77c | 619.01$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…6857backed No | 74c | 506.99$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.32 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 14c | 477.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 71c | 410.87$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…97a2backed No | 46c | 296$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed Yes | 36c | 279.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 15c | 194.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 181.34$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 57c | 168.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 153.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked No | 76c | 152$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 405 | 46.2%187 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc20c…fdb5backed No | 50c | 137.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…36d4backed No | 73c | 135.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 131.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 61c | 124.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…1be0backed No | 50c | 109.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d5…4979backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 57%114 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…96e2backed Yes | 16c | 80.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 80c | 80.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 70.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…174bbacked Yes | 39c | 61.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…1b48backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 48c | 31.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…f231backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 46c | 26.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 243 | 56%136 W · 107 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 53c | 23.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f0…0451backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d34…f03bbacked No | 72c | 17.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 16.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 219 | 53%116 W · 103 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.