Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeddb1b7734f75b53e2d26ad3af0b2875f983d93e2cf989be57832b8a304625da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 7c | 2,911$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 65c | 2,045$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.62 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4674…03cabacked Yes | 58c | 927.69$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.01 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 73c | 668.02$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.88 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 5c | 605.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.49 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 5c | 578.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 21c | 570.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 388.14$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 15c | 320.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 271.11$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 57c | 258.17$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.66 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 218.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 72c | 198.41$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed No | 70c | 182.76$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…06b7backed Yes | 11c | 173.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.92 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 66c | 171.71$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 12c | 158.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 76c | 155.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.38 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…95d2backed Yes | 71c | 154.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 14c | 150.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 149.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 9c | 116.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 12c | 113.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af7…af1ebacked Yes | 36c | 113.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 110.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 11c | 110.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 60c | 101.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…af44backed Yes | 15c | 97.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 11c | 96.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…a6d9backed Yes | 64c | 92.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 22c | 92.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 16c | 71.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…6f1abacked Yes | 55c | 70.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 30c | 66.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62df…1411backed No | 40c | 47.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 53c | 45.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 32c | 42.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 30c | 35.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 66c | 35.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 53c | 33.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 43c | 33.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 77c | 31.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 53c | 27.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 25.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 53c | 18.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 73c | 15.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab0…f15ebacked Yes | 75c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.